Publications Using WindRiskTech Methods

Sobel, A. H., C.-Y. Lee, S. J. Camargo, K. T. Mandli, K. A. Emanuel, P. Mukhopadhyay, and M. Mahakur, 2019: Tropical cyclone hazard to Mumbai in the recent historical climate. Mon. Wea. Rev., 147, 2355-2366, doi:10.1175/mwr-d-18-0419.1.

Irvine, P., K. Emanuel, J. He, L. W. Horowitz, G. Vecchi, and D. Keith, 2019: Halving warming with idealized solar geoengineering moderates key climate hazards. Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 295-299, doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0398-8.

Lu, P., N. Lin, K. Emanuel, D. Chavas, and J. Smith, 2018: Assessing hurricane rainfall mechanisms using a physics-based model: Hurricanes Isabel (2003) and Irene (2011). J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 2337-2358, doi:10.1175/jas-d-17-0264.1.

Emanuel, K., 2017: Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall. Proc. Net. Acad. Sci., doi/10.1073/pnas.1716222114.

Garner, A. J., M. E. Mann, K. A. Emanuel, R. E. Kopp, N. Lin, , R. B. Alley, B. P. Horton, R. M. DeConto, J. P. Donnelly, and D. Pollard, 2017: Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., doi/10.1073/pnas.1703568114.

Emanuel, K., and F. Zhang, 2017: The role of inner-core moisture in tropical cyclone predictability and practical forecast skill. J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 2315-2324.

Pausata, F. S. R., K. A. Emanuel, M. Chiacchio, G. T. Diro, Q. Zhang, L. Sushama, J.C. Stager, and J. P. Donnelly, 2017: Tropical cyclone activity enhanced by Sahara greening and reduced dust emissions during the African Humid Period. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., doi/10.1073/pnas.1619111114.

Emanuel, K., 2017: Will global warming make hurricane forecasting more difficult? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 495-501.

Zhang, L., K. B. Karnauskas, J. P. Donnelly, and K. Emanuel, 2017: Response of the North Pacific tropical cyclone climatology to global warming: Application of dynamical downscaling to CMIP5 models. J. Clim., 30, 1233-1243.

Nakamura, J., and Coauthors, 2017: Western North Pacific tropical cyclone model tracks in present and future climates. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 9721-9744, doi:10.1002/2017JD027007.

Romero, R., and K. Emanuel, 2017: Climate change and hurricane-like extratropical cyclones: Projections for North Atlantic polar lows and medicanes based on CMIP5 models. J. Clim, 30, 279-299.

Korty, R. L., K. A. Emanuel, M. Huber, and R. A. Zamora, 2017: Tropical cyclones downscaled from simulations with very high carbon dioxide levels. J. Clim, 30, 649-667.

Kossin, J. P., K. A. Emanuel, and S. J. Carmargo, 2016: Past and projected changes in western North Pacific tropical cyclone exposure. J. Climate, 29, 5725-5739.

Emanuel. K., and F. Zhang, 2016: On the predictability and error sources of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 3739-3747

Reed, A. J., M E. Mann, K. A. Emanuel, N. Lin, B. P. Horton, A.C. Kemp, and J. P. Donnelly, 2015: Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 112, 12610-12615.

Reed, A. J., M. E. Mann, K. A. Emanuel, and D. W. Titley, 2015: An analysis of long-term relationships among count statistics and metrics of synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 7506-7519. Copyright 2015, American Geophysical Union. Further reproduction or electronic distribution is not permitted.

Emanuel, K., 2015: Effect of upper-ocean evolution on projected trends in tropical cyclone activity. J. Clim., 28, 8165-8170.

Lin, N. and K. Emanuel, 2015: Grey swan tropical cyclones. Nature Clim. Change, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2777. Supplementary information.

Dwyer, J. D., S. J. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, M. Biasutti, K. A. Emanuel, G. A. Vecchi, M. Zhao, and M. K. Tippett, 2015: Projected Twenty-First-Century Changes in the Length of the Tropical Cyclone Season. J. Climate, 28, 6181–6192. doi:

Neumann, J. E., K. A. Emanuel, S. Ravela, L. C. Ludwig, and C. Verly, 2015: Risks of coastal storm surge and the effect of sea level rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. Sustainability, 7, 6553-6572

Kowch, R. and K. Emanuel, 2015: Are special processes at work in the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones? Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 878-882.

Daloz, A.S., and co-authors, 2015: Cluster analysis of downscaled and explicitly simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. J. Climate, 28, 1333-1361.

Neumann, J. E., K. Emanuel, S. Ravela, L. Ludwig, P. Kirshen, K. Bosma, and J. Martinich, 2014: Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US coasts: New economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, ad benefits of mitigation policy. Clim. Change, 128, doi 10.1007/s10584-014-1304-z

Lin, N., P. Lane, K. A. Emanuel, R. M., Sullivan, and J. P. Donnelly, 2014: Heightened hurricane surge risk in northwest Florida revealed from climatological-hydrodynamic modeling and paleorecord reconstruction. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 8606–8623, doi:10.1002/2014JD021584.

Vincent, E. M., K. A. Emanuel, L. Matthieu, J. Vialard, and G. Madec, 2014: Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones. J. Adv. Mod. Earth Sys., 6, DOI: 10.1002/2014MS000327

Ravela,S., 2014: A statistical theory of inference for coherent fluids. Lec. Notes. Comp. Sci., 8964

Aerts, C. J. H. J., W. J. W. Botzen, K. Emanuel, N. Lin, H. de Moel, and E. O. Michel-Kerjan, 2014: Evaluating flood resilience strategies for coastal megacities. Science, 344, 473-475.

Ravela, S., and K. Emanuel, 2013: Synthetic storm simulation for wind risk assessment. In Storm Surge Barriers to Protect New York City: Against the Deluge, D. Hill, M. J. Bowman, and J. S. Khinda, Editors, Amer. Soc. Civil Eng., pp. 15-37.

Neumann, J. E., K. A. Emanuel, S. Ravela, L. C. Ludwig, and C. Verly, 2013: Assessing the risk of cyclone-induced storm surge and sea level rise in Mozambique World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) Working Paper 2013/36.

Zhu, L., S. M. Quiring, and K. A. Emanuel, 2013: Estimating tropical cyclone precipitation risk in Texas. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 6225-6230, doi:10.1002/2013GL058284. Further reproduction or electronic distribution is not permitted.

Strazzo, S., J. B. Elsner, J.C. Trapnier, and K. A. Emanuel, 2013: Frequency, intensity, and sensitivity to sea surface temperature of North Atlantic tropical cyclones in best-track and simulated data. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 5, doi: 10.1002/jame.20036. Copyright 2013, American Geophysical Union. Further reproduction or electronic distribution is not permitted.

Emanuel, K.A., 2013: Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 110, doi/10.1073/pnas.1301293110.

Romero, R., and K. Emanuel, 2013: Medicane risk in a changing climate. J. Geophys. Res., 118, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50475. Copyright 2013, American Geophysical Union. Further reproduction or electronic distribution is not permitted.

Aerts, J. C. J. H., N. Lin, W. J. W. Botzen, K. Emanuel, and H. de Moel, 2013: Low-probability flood risk modeling for New York City. Risk Analysis, 33, DOI: 10.1111/risa.12008

Kozar, M. E., M. E. Mann, K. A. Emanuel, and J. L. Evans, 2013: Long-term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 13,383-13,392, doi:10.1002/2013JD020380. Copyright 2013, American Geophysical Union. Further reproduction or electronic distribution is not permitted.

Emanuel, K., F. Fondriest, and J. Kossin, 2012: Potential economic value of seasonal hurricane forecasts. Wea. Clim. Soc.,, 4, 110-117.

Lin, N., K. Emanuel, M. Oppenheimer, and E. Vanmarcke, 2012: Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change. Nature Clim. Change,,doi:10.1038/nclimate1389.

Mendelsohn R., K. Emanuel, S. Chonabayashi, and L. Bakkensen, 2012: The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage. Nature Clim. Change,, doi:10.1038/nclimate1357.

Klima, K., N. Lin, K. Emanuel, M. G. Morgan, and I Grossman, 2011: Hurricane modification and adaptation in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Environ. Sci. Technol.,., 45, doi: 10.1021/es202640p.

Klima, K., M. G. Morgan, I. Grossman, and K. Emanuel, 2011: Does it make sense to modify tropical cyclones? A decision-analytic assessment. Environ. Sci. Technol.,., 45, 4242-4248.

Emanuel, K., 2011: Global warming effects on U.S. hurricane damage. Wea. Clim. Soc.,, 3, 261-268.

Ravela, S. and K. Emanuel, 2010: Statistical Deterministic Approach to Hurricane Risk Assessment. US Patent 7,734,245

Emanuel, K., K. Oouchi, M. Satoh, T. Hirofumi, and Y. Yamada, 2010: Comparison of explicitly simulated and downscaled tropical cyclone activity in a high-resolution global climate model. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys.,, 2, DOI:10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.9.

Lin, N., K. A. Emanuel, J. A. Smith, and E. A. Vanmarcke, 2010: Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D18121, doi:10.1029/2009JD013630. Copyright 2010, American Geophysical Union. Further reproduction or electronic distribution is not permitted.

Federov, A. V., C. M. A. Breierly, and K. Emanuel, 2010: Tropical cyclones and permanent El Niño in the early Pliocene epoch. Nature, 463, 1066-1070.

Emanuel, K., 2010: Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from NOAA-CIRES Reanalysis, 1908-1958. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 2 , doi:10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.1.

Woodruff, J. D., J. P. Donnelly, K. Emanuel, and P. Lane, 2008: Assessing sedimentary records of paleohurricane activity using modeled hurricane climatology. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 9, Q09V10, doi:10.1029/2008GC002043.

Emanuel, K., R. Sundararajan, and J. Williams, 2008: Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 347-367.

Emanuel, K., 2006: Climate and tropical cyclone activity: A new model downscaling approach. J. Climate, 19, 4797-4802.

Emanuel, K., S. A. Ravela, E. A. Vivant and C.A. Risi, 2006: A Statistical-Deterministic Approach to Hurricane Risk Assessment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 299-314. Online Supplement