We generate and deliver large numbers of synthetic tropical cyclone tracks, with storm surge information if desired, affecting any part of the world. The tracks are specified to pass within a given distance of a specified point of interest, or to pass over any of a set of user-defined line segments. They may be generated from any of six different climate reanalysis data sets, going back as early as 1891 and extending as recently as last year, or from any of six CMIP5 global climate models run over historical intervals dating back as far as 1850 and extending to the year 2005, and run forward to the year 2100 under IPCC emissions pathways RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.
What You Get
Our event sets are delivered as Excel spreadsheets or MATLAB (or OCTAVE) binary files. For each track, the following quantities are provided every two hours:
Surges are typically provided in a variety of formats using SLOSH, ADCIRC, and Windrisktech’s FastSurge models. Wave coupling with SWAN for inundation studies can also be provided. The data we provide include:
- Surge cumulative density functions, histograms or return period charts. One file per event set, containing an empirical cumulative distribution function of surge height and 95% upper and lower confidence bounds.
- A single file of peak surge per event set at customer specified lat-long points interpolated from available model resolution, containing storm number, latitude, longitude, and peak surge height
- A single file of storm surge for each event at specified lat-long points interpolated from available model resolution and time step.
The distribution of rainfall around a tropical cyclone cannot usually be reconstructed from a small number of storm parameters as is the case with the wind field. WindRiskTech's methods account for the effects of boundary layer drag, ambient wind shear, internal storm dynamics, and topography on the rainfall distribution. Rather than distribute extremely large data sets that would include the spatial and temporal distributions of rain in each of the many thousands of events we generate, we instead provide exceedance probabilities of rainfall rates and accumulated storm rainfall for any user-specified point.
We provide an extensive set of MATLAB-based analysis scripts for calculating return periods of wind and rain, plotting individual tracks and groups of tracks, analyzing genesis and track densities and the seasonality of events, and many other aspects of our tropical cyclone events.
Comparisons with historical tracks
WindRiskTech's MATLAB-based software includes an up-to-date global database of historical tropical cyclones which can be used to perform detailed comparisons between WindRiskTech synthetic events and historical events.
WindRiskTech's staff are available on an hourly basis for consultations, report writing, and other tasks. For more information, contact us at Info@WindRiskTech.com